Vagaries of the summer monsoon rains

Abstract

Summer monsoonal rains are very important for agriculture in our country. Fluctuations in monsoonal performance often create wide variations in crop production. In the present paper, the predictability of monsoon rains in the context of Professor Lorenz's recent work has been discussed. Variations in sea-surface temperature and snow cover and their impact on monsoonal rains are also discussed. Recent work on, the ENSO event and monsoons is described. The article covers the statistical methods for long-range prediction of rains. The limitations of the current 16-parameter regression equation are mentioned. In conclusion, the cost benefits, which can be assessed by methods based on probability are discussed.